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do you hear what i hear

<< Jun 26, 2008 @ 11:01 >>

Twitter is the "web20" death knell.

Buckets of VC money being poured into a company that isn't profitable and has no practical business model? Why does that sound so familiar?

Even their Fail Whale is ironically symbolic. It represents social network bloat, and the crushing weight of having more users than you can develop for or afford.

Don't get me wrong, just like with the web 1.0 bubble burst, some websites will survive, and the technologies and patterns developed in this era will endure into the next, albeit refined.

But the bubble burst is coming, and I don't think it'll wait much longer than until 2011.

All the industry people I've talked to are not only living in Egypt -- with river front property -- but the things coming out of their mouths are the exact same things that caused the web 1.0 collapse. It amazes me.

The recent Higher Ed obsession with social networks and "web20" also serves as a reminder that the end is nigh. As soon as Higher Ed starts doing anything, it is already on the way out.

On the other hand, if we see Government spending big bucks on social networking and "web20" projects then we'll know it is already dead.

So what's this Chicken Little think we should all do then, you ask?

Pick out the real best practices from web20, and ignore the hype. Trust your gut. Get yourself a stable job for a company with a real business model before 2011. And, start looking beyond web20 towards The Next Big Thing (hint hint: Mobile Web).

I'll see you all in the unemployment lines in 2012, and then again at the top of the web 3-point-naught bubble in 2020.

Technology is nothing if not predictable.

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Reader Comments...

June 27, 2008 @ 18:41:55

foucault.pngwhitewaffle (#1050)

You won't see them in the unemployment lines because you'll still have your University job--albeit underpaid and not as interesting as private sector, but relatively secure nonetheless.

July 2, 2008 @ 15:09:45

marilyn.pngsith33 (#999)

He said he was just planning to have you support him

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